Though I do not believe there is enough historical evidence
to support the “Sell in May and Go Away” approach to investing, the data for
June does suggest that may not have been a bad approach over the last ten
months of June.
After removing the high and low returns for statistical
analysis there appears to have been only one clear winner over the last 25, 20,
15 and 10 months of June. Energy stocks
have been the best sector performer for the trailing 25, 20, and 15 years
during the month, and the third best performing sector over the last 10 years.
The last ten Junes have been very challenging for the
markets. This includes a four year
stretch between 2010 and 2013 where the S&P 500 went down every year. The markets weakness over the last ten years
during June should help explain why the “defensive” utility sector was the best
performing sector during this period of time.
In my opinion the data does not show any clear cut sector to
avoid in June.
Based on my research I will be weighting the AFL Select
Sector Folio as follows for this June:
75% Energy Stocks
25% Utilities
|
June
|
Cons Disc
|
Health Care
|
Energy
|
Financials
|
Cons Staples
|
Technology
|
|
1990
|
10.52%
|
12.23%
|
9.42%
|
6.71%
|
8.71%
|
12.78%
|
|
1991
|
5.96%
|
4.40%
|
1.46%
|
5.22%
|
3.66%
|
3.13%
|
|
1992
|
0.57%
|
3.16%
|
5.67%
|
3.13%
|
0.89%
|
1.16%
|
|
1993
|
6.49%
|
5.07%
|
4.07%
|
-1.03%
|
3.15%
|
8.62%
|
|
1994
|
-2.27%
|
0.56%
|
1.92%
|
4.25%
|
-0.73%
|
-2.02%
|
|
1995
|
1.72%
|
1.16%
|
2.33%
|
5.13%
|
3.59%
|
3.65%
|
|
1996
|
3.82%
|
1.77%
|
1.62%
|
1.99%
|
3.69%
|
3.35%
|
|
1997
|
7.15%
|
10.34%
|
10.42%
|
5.46%
|
3.40%
|
12.43%
|
|
1998
|
0.27%
|
-3.52%
|
-6.36%
|
-2.40%
|
0.69%
|
-6.72%
|
|
1999
|
-2.75%
|
-0.12%
|
-2.59%
|
-3.49%
|
-1.63%
|
-0.98%
|
|
2000
|
-2.44%
|
1.49%
|
11.52%
|
5.50%
|
3.89%
|
-11.58%
|
|
2001
|
3.11%
|
4.22%
|
0.55%
|
4.03%
|
2.57%
|
-4.12%
|
|
2002
|
-0.45%
|
-3.67%
|
-2.72%
|
0.03%
|
0.50%
|
-5.80%
|
|
2003
|
5.87%
|
8.95%
|
12.68%
|
6.18%
|
6.44%
|
12.27%
|
|
2004
|
-0.16%
|
-0.70%
|
-1.09%
|
1.95%
|
-1.08%
|
5.62%
|
|
2005
|
5.71%
|
2.70%
|
3.98%
|
2.62%
|
3.21%
|
9.25%
|
|
2006
|
-3.39%
|
-3.25%
|
-3.87%
|
-3.82%
|
-0.31%
|
-8.17%
|
|
2007
|
3.29%
|
1.30%
|
7.80%
|
2.45%
|
1.53%
|
4.29%
|
|
2008
|
1.18%
|
2.52%
|
7.86%
|
-2.79%
|
1.10%
|
5.85%
|
|
2009
|
0.72%
|
5.67%
|
17.26%
|
10.96%
|
6.41%
|
4.45%
|
|
2010
|
-6.75%
|
-7.79%
|
-12.69%
|
-9.72%
|
-6.91%
|
-7.01%
|
|
2011
|
0.17%
|
2.14%
|
-4.30%
|
-2.85%
|
1.30%
|
-1.56%
|
|
2012
|
-5.70%
|
-3.64%
|
-10.97%
|
-7.53%
|
-4.20%
|
-9.14%
|
|
2013
|
-0.03%
|
-1.39%
|
-0.39%
|
-1.30%
|
-0.69%
|
-1.25%
|
|
2014
|
2.10%
|
5.15%
|
5.96%
|
2.39%
|
0.48%
|
4.50%
|
|
# Of Up Years
|
16
|
17
|
16
|
16
|
18
|
14
|
|
25 Year Mean
|
1.35%
|
1.93%
|
2.39%
|
1.38%
|
1.65%
|
1.38%
|
|
Standard Deviation
|
3.37
|
3.68
|
5.92
|
3.79
|
2.5
|
6.2
|
|
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
|
-0.21%
|
0.69%
|
0.76%
|
-1.35%
|
0.30%
|
0.14%
|
|
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
|
0.32%
|
0.96%
|
2.08%
|
0.53%
|
1.13%
|
-0.24%
|
|
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
|
0.72%
|
1.15%
|
1.80%
|
0.75%
|
1.36%
|
0.47%
|
|
June
|
Telecom
|
Nat Resources
|
Real Estate
|
Utilities
|
Industrials
|
S&P 500 TR
|
|
1990
|
8.43%
|
7.60%
|
0.88%
|
4.58%
|
6.82%
|
9.75%
|
|
1991
|
0.75%
|
3.07%
|
1.07%
|
0.20%
|
5.72%
|
4.31%
|
|
1992
|
-0.65%
|
3.91%
|
3.21%
|
1.95%
|
-0.22%
|
0.49%
|
|
1993
|
3.30%
|
3.56%
|
-0.69%
|
0.28%
|
4.39%
|
2.68%
|
|
1994
|
-0.22%
|
1.69%
|
1.28%
|
-2.50%
|
-1.88%
|
1.64%
|
|
1995
|
2.49%
|
1.65%
|
4.00%
|
3.74%
|
1.67%
|
4.00%
|
|
1996
|
2.85%
|
1.18%
|
2.55%
|
0.74%
|
1.39%
|
2.58%
|
|
1997
|
9.91%
|
8.02%
|
2.90%
|
4.81%
|
7.88%
|
6.09%
|
|
1998
|
-4.39%
|
-7.48%
|
-1.15%
|
-1.36%
|
-2.93%
|
-1.72%
|
|
1999
|
-0.53%
|
-3.90%
|
2.28%
|
2.51%
|
-1.42%
|
-2.36%
|
|
2000
|
-8.97%
|
7.99%
|
1.19%
|
-1.06%
|
-3.64%
|
-2.05%
|
|
2001
|
-4.96%
|
0.86%
|
2.02%
|
-1.84%
|
3.64%
|
0.67%
|
|
2002
|
-1.52%
|
0.27%
|
1.42%
|
-3.46%
|
-0.67%
|
-0.74%
|
|
2003
|
9.52%
|
10.56%
|
5.54%
|
0.30%
|
4.22%
|
5.27%
|
|
2004
|
0.73%
|
0.66%
|
6.34%
|
1.72%
|
2.08%
|
1.37%
|
|
2005
|
5.42%
|
2.48%
|
3.15%
|
0.73%
|
4.86%
|
3.18%
|
|
2006
|
-6.81%
|
-3.39%
|
-2.81%
|
-0.16%
|
-2.91%
|
-2.88%
|
|
2007
|
7.14%
|
5.97%
|
0.59%
|
3.41%
|
5.77%
|
3.49%
|
|
2008
|
5.24%
|
6.98%
|
0.08%
|
3.67%
|
2.30%
|
1.30%
|
|
2009
|
7.87%
|
15.98%
|
3.06%
|
6.13%
|
4.25%
|
5.59%
|
|
2010
|
-5.47%
|
-10.68%
|
-5.25%
|
-6.69%
|
-8.40%
|
-7.99%
|
|
2011
|
-0.17%
|
-4.16%
|
1.36%
|
0.30%
|
-2.56%
|
-1.13%
|
|
2012
|
-6.55%
|
-12.13%
|
-4.30%
|
-2.82%
|
-6.53%
|
-6.01%
|
|
2013
|
1.15%
|
-5.16%
|
-2.12%
|
0.19%
|
-1.55%
|
-1.01%
|
|
2014
|
0.74%
|
4.52%
|
1.12%
|
4.23%
|
1.19%
|
2.07%
|
|
# Of Up Years
|
14
|
18
|
19
|
17
|
14
|
16
|
|
25 Year Mean
|
1.06%
|
1.57%
|
1.16%
|
0.88%
|
1.04%
|
1.17%
|
|
Standard Deviation
|
4.66
|
5.27
|
2.21
|
2.38
|
3.51
|
3
|
|
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
|
0.94%
|
-0.43%
|
-0.38%
|
1.19%
|
-0.12%
|
-0.12%
|
|
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
|
0.22%
|
1.30%
|
0.79%
|
0.40%
|
0.36%
|
0.27%
|
|
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
|
0.71%
|
0.91%
|
1.16%
|
0.87%
|
0.51%
|
0.65%
|
|
Rank
|
25 Year
|
20 Year
|
15 Year
|
10 Year
|
|
1
|
Energy
|
Energy
|
Energy
|
Utilities
|
|
2
|
Health Care
|
Cons Staples
|
Nat Resources
|
Telecom
|
|
3
|
Cons Staples
|
Real Estate
|
Cons Staples
|
Energy
|
|
4
|
Nat Resources
|
Health Care
|
Health Care
|
Health Care
|
|
5
|
Technology
|
Nat Resources
|
Real Estate
|
Cons Staples
|
|
6
|
Financials
|
Utilities
|
Financials
|
Technology
|
|
7
|
Cons Disc
|
Financials
|
Utilities
|
Industrials
|
|
8
|
S&P 500 TR
|
Cons Disc
|
Industrials
|
S&P 500 TR
|
|
9
|
Real Estate
|
Telecom
|
Cons Disc
|
Cons Disc
|
|
10
|
Telecom
|
S&P 500 TR
|
S&P 500 TR
|
Real Estate
|
|
11
|
Industrials
|
Industrials
|
Telecom
|
Nat Resources
|
|
12
|
Utilities
|
Technology
|
Technology
|
Financials
|
*** Red Denotes A Negative Mean Return For That Time
Period ***
Thank you.
Jon R. Orcutt is the
author of “Master the Markets with Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide to
Investing Success; Founder and Author of the Allocation for Life Investment
Newsletter, found at www.allocationforlife.com
; and President and Senior Portfolio Manager at the AFL Advisory Group, LLC
