Mar '13, Q1/YTD S&P 500, Asset Class & Sector Performance

As of the close on 03-28-13	March	Q1	2013
S&P 500 Index Total Return	3.75%	10.61%	10.61%
Asset Class Category Average Performance
Internmediate-Term Bond	0.16%	0.31%	0.31%
Domestic Large Cap Value	3.93%	11.22%	11.22%
Domestic Mid Cap Value	4.37%	12.88%	12.88%
Domestic Small Cap Value	4.24%	12.28%	12.28%
Foreign Large Cap Value	0.97%	3.28%	3.28%
Foreign Small/Mid Cap Value	1.43%	6.88%	6.88%
Domestic Large Cap Growth	3.31%	8.92%	8.92%
Domestic Mid Cap Growth	3.45%	10.75%	10.75%
Domestic Small Cap Growth	4.63%	12.06%	12.06%
Foreign Large Cap Growth	1.05%	3.70%	3.70%
Diversified Emerging Markets	-1.00%	-0.25%	-0.25%
Gold & Precious Metals Equites	0.22%	-17.28%	-17.28%
Real Estate	2.75%	6.78%	6.78%
Broad Basket Commodities	-0.39%	-1.43%	-1.43%
Sector Category Average Performance
Technology	2.39%	6.85%	6.85%
Consumer Discretionary	4.19%	11.15%	11.15%
Financials	3.02%	10.87%	10.87%
Telecommunications	3.12%	5.92%	5.92%
Industrials	3.55%	11.70%	11.70%
Utilities	5.00%	11.40%	11.40%
Natural Resources	0.95%	2.49%	2.49%
Real Estate	2.75%	6.78%	6.78%
Health Care	6.53%	16.07%	16.07%
Consumer Staples	4.42%	12.45%	12.45%
Energy	2.99%	11.25%	11.25%
Regions
Europe Stock	0.17%	2.64%	2.64%
China Region	-3.09%	-2.46%	-2.46%
Japan Stock	7.24%	14.32%	14.32%
Latin America	-0.30%	0.68%	0.68%

Jon R. Orcutt is the founder of Allocation For Life, Author of The Allocation For Life Investment Newsletter, Author of "Master The Markets With Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide To Investing Success" and manager/creator of the AFL Models available to Allocation For Life subscribers at Folio Investing.

 

www.allocationforlife.com

April Historical Sector Analysis

Over the last twenty-five years, the month of April has been fairly consistent for the equity markets.  After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis the S&P 500 (Total Return) has achieved a mean return of 1.96% over the last twenty-five months of April.  The strength for the S&P 500 continues across the trailing twenty, fifteen and ten years for the month of April.  The average mean returns for the S&P 500 TR over these periods of time were 2.12%, 2.23% and 2.65%.

Energy stocks have clearly led the way in April over the last twenty-five years.  They have finished as the top performing sector for every trailing time period examined.  Consistency can also be found in financials and industrials.  In April, both of these sectors have finished as top half performers versus the other sectors and the S&P 500 TR over the last twenty-five, twenty, fifteen and ten year time periods.  With the exception of health care stocks (their 25 year mean return of .71%), not a single sector has a mean return below 1% for any of the trailing time periods. 

As always, the past does not predict the future.  However, I have found it useful to understand the historical strengths and weaknesses of each particular sector when entering a new calendar month.  Is it surprising to me that energy stocks have so clearly led the way in April?  No.  Common sense should tell us that it makes sense.  Almost every major energy company, such as Exxon Mobil (XOM), announces earnings in the month of April.  Revenue for these companies should historically be strong being that the reports cover earnings for the heart of the winter months and that is why they usually deliver.  Add in higher than usual gasoline prices throughout much of the first quarter this year and we may see the strong trend continue. 

April	Cons Discr	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1988	1.79%	-1.17%	2.58%	-0.16%	0.31%	2.60%
1989	6.56%	5.43%	4.12%	3.70%	5.17%	7.36%
1990	-1.79%	0.09%	-5.95%	-3.80%	-0.39%	-2.08%
1991	0.07%	-2.01%	0.45%	0.48%	-1.52%	-1.68%
1992	-1.42%	-5.36%	5.08%	2.47%	-1.15%	-2.45%
1993	-2.75%	1.28%	4.63%	-3.84%	-3.88%	-2.67%
1994	0.86%	0.46%	5.25%	2.71%	-1.12%	-0.68%
1995	-0.51%	-0.97%	6.28%	3.08%	2.18%	5.25%
1996	4.41%	2.06%	7.90%	0.38%	-1.83%	10.41%
1997	1.46%	-0.16%	-1.18%	4.82%	3.94%	3.80%
1998	-0.33%	0.81%	2.73%	1.62%	-1.85%	4.07%
1999	1.29%	-4.00%	16.44%	6.80%	1.21%	2.70%
2000	-3.99%	-1.37%	0.32%	-2.70%	2.72%	-11.48%
2001	6.26%	7.73%	12.08%	3.38%	1.01%	19.74%
2002	-0.17%	-6.73%	0.60%	0.10%	2.46%	-12.17%
2003	8.17%	5.66%	1.50%	11.30%	5.08%	10.05%
2004	-2.51%	1.85%	-0.43%	-5.17%	1.44%	-7.29%
2005	-5.27%	2.80%	-6.43%	-1.46%	-3.06%	-4.30%
2006	1.16%	-3.43%	6.53%	2.83%	0.70%	0.32%
2007	1.63%	6.03%	6.11%	2.99%	3.58%	3.47%
2008	3.30%	2.57%	11.31%	4.82%	-0.18%	7.48%
2009	16.14%	0.51%	14.00%	16.49%	7.86%	13.14%
2010	5.23%	-1.65%	2.72%	2.27%	-0.44%	2.43%
2011	3.99%	6.86%	0.32%	1.72%	5.80%	3.12%
2012	0.95%	-0.06%	-0.90%	-1.86%	0.20%	-2.85%
# Of Up Years	16	14	20	18	15	15
25 Year Mean	1.46%	0.71%	3.74%	1.81%	1.05%	1.77%
Standard Deviation	3.1	3.13	4.59	3.38	2.41	5.72
Trailing 10yr Mean	2.74%	2.21%	3.40%	2.83%	2.02%	2.47%
Trailing 15 yr Mean	1.92%	1.28%	4.38%	2.45%	1.67%	1.60%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	1.58%	1.07%	4.43%	2.16%	1.21%	2.05%
April	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500 TR
1988	1.54%	2.21%	-0.20%	0.10%	0.37%	1.11%
1989	7.08%	3.04%	1.53%	3.60%	4.52%	5.19%
1990	-4.20%	-6.08%	-1.19%	-4.19%	-3.09%	-2.49%
1991	1.31%	0.98%	1.17%	0.23%	-1.34%	0.24%
1992	2.79%	4.17%	-0.99%	2.15%	-1.10%	2.94%
1993	-1.54%	2.94%	-3.35%	-0.48%	1.46%	-2.42%
1994	0.34%	2.91%	0.67%	1.67%	0.22%	1.28%
1995	1.74%	3.73%	-0.91%	2.30%	4.93%	2.94%
1996	4.23%	5.48%	-0.03%	0.27%	1.41%	1.47%
1997	2.44%	-0.50%	-3.48%	0.86%	2.84%	5.97%
1998	0.55%	2.45%	-2.99%	-1.71%	0.70%	1.01%
1999	5.83%	16.60%	10.42%	6.55%	12.97%	3.87%
2000	-10.59%	-0.76%	5.47%	-3.79%	2.39%	-3.01%
2001	13.96%	10.52%	2.32%	6.01%	8.55%	7.77%
2002	-10.82%	0.63%	1.33%	-3.74%	-4.04%	-6.06%
2003	9.69%	1.16%	4.02%	7.04%	10.47%	8.24%
2004	-5.15%	-2.34%	-13.70%	-2.25%	-0.41%	-1.57%
2005	-2.74%	-6.46%	4.52%	0.73%	-6.09%	-1.90%
2006	0.88%	6.44%	-2.94%	2.15%	1.59%	1.34%
2007	3.74%	4.66%	0.20%	4.00%	4.13%	4.43%
2008	8.64%	8.94%	5.60%	5.89%	5.15%	4.87%
2009	11.96%	9.40%	29.62%	3.62%	18.46%	9.57%
2010	1.81%	1.43%	6.60%	1.98%	3.73%	1.58%
2011	3.81%	1.74%	5.25%	4.04%	3.35%	2.96%
2012	-1.57%	-1.22%	2.77%	1.67%	-0.93%	-0.63%
# Of Up Years	18	19	15	19	18	18
25 Year Mean	1.85%	2.69%	1.56%	1.56%	2.52%	1.96%
Standard Deviation	4.92	3.77	3.52	1.86	4.01	3.12
Trailing 10yr Mean	3.03%	2.60%	3.25%	3.01%	3.39%	2.65%
Trailing 15 yr Mean	2.07%	3.31%	3.27%	2.23%	3.67%	2.23%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	1.89%	3.20%	1.97%	1.89%	3.25%	2.12%

 

Rank	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Energy	Energy	Energy	Energy
2	Nat Resources	Industrials	Industrials	Industrials
3	Industrials	Nat Resources	Nat Resources	Real Estate
4	S&P 500 TR	Financials	Real Estate	Telecom
5	Telecom	S&P 500 TR	Financials	Utilities
6	Financials	Technology	S&P 500 TR	Financials
7	Technology	Real Estate	Utilities	Cons Disc
8	Real Estate	Utilities	Telecom	S&P 500 TR
9	Utilities	Telecom	Cons Disc	Nat Resources
10	Cons Disc	Cons Discr	Cons Staples	Technology
11	Cons Staples	Cons Staples	Technology	Health Care
12	Health Care	Health Care	Health Care	Cons Staples

 

Jon R. Orcutt is the founder of Allocation For Life, Author of The Allocation For Life Investment Newsletter, Author of "Master The Markets With Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide To Investing Success" and manager/creator of the AFL Models available to Allocation For Life subscribers at Folio Investing.

 

www.allocationforlife.com