Saturday, February 28, 2015

March Historical Sector and S&P 500 Analysis


March Historical Sector Analysis

*** Pre-Released to Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter Subscribers ***

 

March is a very interesting month for our domestic markets.  Over the last fifteen years March has been the month when two major market declines came to an end.  Market bottoms were reached in both March of 2003 and March of 2009.

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis, there are a few obvious trends in the sectors that I have observed over the last twenty-five years during the month of March.  Overall, the markets have been consistently strong in March, with the S&P 500 achieving the following mean returns for each specific time period examined:

25 Yean Mean = 1.56%

20 Year Mean = 1.95%

15 Year Mean = 2.01%

10 Year Mean = 1.99%

 

While no one sector has been the leader for more than one of the time periods examined, consistent strength can be seen in the Consumer Discretionary sector (Sector leader the last twenty-five years and the second best performing sector for the trailing 20, 15 and 10 year time periods), and the Industrial Sector (A top three performing sector for every time period examined.)

Perpetual weakness versus the other sectors and the S&P 500 can be seen in the Health Care sector (the worst performing sector for three of the time periods examined and next to the last worst performing sector in the other), and the Technology Sector (A bottom three performer for every time period examined.)

 

March
Cons Disc
Health Care
Energy
Financials
Cons Staples
Technology
1990
4.36%
3.51%
4.14%
-0.36%
4.32%
4.59%
1991
5.70%
6.74%
12.51%
5.22%
4.89%
4.27%
1992
-1.29%
-5.25%
0.71%
-0.41%
-2.22%
-7.11%
1993
6.33%
1.97%
9.36%
4.62%
2.72%
2.48%
1994
-4.60%
-6.43%
-2.37%
-3.26%
-4.67%
-5.11%
1995
2.39%
3.78%
3.74%
0.51%
2.27%
4.60%
1996
3.33%
1.33%
2.71%
1.79%
-1.68%
-3.17%
1997
-2.52%
-7.01%
-8.37%
-5.89%
-2.61%
-6.69%
1998
5.94%
3.13%
4.54%
5.26%
3.67%
2.41%
1999
3.07%
0.78%
-4.66%
2.52%
-0.10%
10.63%
2000
9.86%
-8.58%
3.39%
13.59%
8.79%
-4.38%
2001
-5.67%
-11.07%
0.46%
-2.65%
-3.36%
-16.22%
2002
3.10%
2.18%
3.40%
5.81%
3.35%
9.43%
2003
2.54%
3.98%
2.71%
-0.71%
-0.08%
-0.53%
2004
0.07%
-0.58%
5.63%
-0.26%
0.63%
-2.23%
2005
0.02%
-1.89%
13.54%
-2.97%
-1.31%
-2.87%
2006
2.94%
-0.78%
-10.11%
1.39%
1.74%
2.45%
2007
0.95%
0.23%
-0.07%
-0.61%
2.47%
0.37%
2008
-3.79%
-3.72%
8.40%
-2.01%
2.22%
-0.61%
2009
11.85%
5.61%
-9.43%
12.59%
4.80%
11.45%
2010
8.61%
4.80%
2.47%
7.52%
5.25%
7.16%
2011
0.11%
3.15%
3.15%
-0.80%
0.91%
-0.76%
2012
4.68%
4.18%
-4.04%
4.46%
3.10%
4.44%
2013
4.19%
6.53%
2.99%
3.03%
4.42%
2.39%
2014
-1.50%
-4.96%
1.97%
1.94%
1.52%
-2.67%
# of up Years
19
15
18
14
17
13
Trailing 25 Yr Mean
2.37%
0.26%
1.88%
1.85%
1.61%
0.83%
Standard Deviation
3.65
4.28
5.05
3.75
2.51
4.73
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
2.50%
1.45%
0.68%
1.87%
2.65%
1.60%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
2.44%
0.28%
1.62%
2.28%
2.23%
0.94%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
2.44%
0.31%
1.06%
2.05%
1.70%
1.11%
March
Telecom
Nat Resources
Real Estate
Utilities
Industrials
S&P 500
1990
2.28%
0.49%
0.33%
0.11%
5.08%
2.65%
1991
3.64%
-1.61%
4.38%
1.50%
1.59%
2.42%
1992
-2.95%
-3.28%
-0.77%
-0.86%
-3.30%
-1.94%
1993
3.51%
5.65%
6.85%
1.72%
6.17%
2.11%
1994
-4.96%
-5.46%
-3.09%
-3.34%
-4.56%
-4.36%
1995
2.07%
5.64%
0.42%
-0.21%
5.10%
2.95%
1996
0.28%
5.44%
0.09%
-0.56%
2.64%
0.96%
1997
-5.52%
-2.52%
0.46%
-3.09%
-1.35%
-4.11%
1998
7.59%
3.56%
2.35%
7.07%
4.86%
5.12%
1999
7.83%
16.08%
-1.14%
0.02%
1.38%
4.00%
2000
-0.25%
11.92%
4.29%
5.07%
12.73%
9.78%
2001
-14.04%
-2.63%
-0.23%
-2.22%
-4.99%
-6.34%
2002
2.70%
9.21%
5.59%
6.45%
3.14%
3.76%
2003
-0.19%
-3.38%
2.18%
2.15%
0.77%
0.97%
2004
-2.11%
1.34%
5.76%
0.81%
-0.17%
-1.51%
2005
-3.56%
-1.20%
-1.62%
-0.11%
-1.31%
-1.77%
2006
3.82%
5.21%
4.86%
-1.48%
4.43%
1.24%
2007
1.44%
4.79%
-1.57%
4.29%
-0.10%
1.12%
2008
-3.57%
-2.49%
3.84%
-0.62%
0.51%
-0.43%
2009
8.43%
6.69%
4.50%
2.71%
8.04%
8.76%
2010
7.05%
5.30%
9.41%
3.26%
9.04%
6.03%
2011
0.73%
1.48%
-1.27%
0.71%
1.83%
0.04%
2012
2.03%
-4.52%
4.70%
1.03%
1.15%
3.29%
2013
3.12%
0.99%
2.75%
5.03%
3.55%
3.75%
2014
0.42%
0.60%
0.68%
2.64%
0.04%
0.84%
# of up Years
16
16
18
16
18
18
Trailing 25 Yr Mean
1.10%
2.03%
2.06%
1.23%
2.11%
1.56%
Standard Deviation
3.66
4.34
2.63
2.39
3.31
3.06
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
1.88%
1.84%
2.31%
1.74%
2.43%
1.99%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
0.89%
1.99%
2.78%
1.96%
2.38%
2.01%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
1.33%
2.78%
2.13%
1.61%
2.42%
1.95%

 

March Historical Sector Rankings

 

Rank
25 Year
20 Year
15 Year
10 Year
1
Cons Disc
Nat Resources
Real Estate
Cons Staples
2
Industrials
Cons Disc
Cons Disc
Cons Disc
3
Real Estate
Industrials
Industrials
Industrials
4
Nat Resources
Real Estate
Financials
Real Estate
5
Energy
Financials
Cons Staples
S&P 500 TR
6
Financials
S&P 500 TR
S&P 500 TR
Telecom
7
Cons Staples
Cons Staples
Nat Resources
Financials
8
S&P 500 TR
Utilities
Utilities
Nat Resources
9
Utilities
Telecom
Energy
Utilities
10
Telecom
Technology
Technology
Technology
11
Technology
Energy
Telecom
Health Care
12
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
Energy

 

 

Based on my research I will be weighting the Select Sector Folio as follows for this coming March:

25% Consumer Discretionary

25% Nat Resources

25% Real Estate

25% Consumer Staples

 

 

The following represent the returns of the Select Sector Folio which is weighted each month based on my research:

 

YTD
1MOS
3MOS
1YR
3YR
INCEPTION
5.12%
4.66%
5.62%
26.10%
32.68%

As of the close on 2/27/2015 / Inception Date 1/2/2014

 

 

Data researched and provided by Jon R. Orcutt.  Mr. Orcutt is President and Senior Portfolio Manager at the AFL Advisory Group, and author of the Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter found at www.allocationforlife.com