Friday, May 29, 2015

June Historical Sector and S&P 500 Analysis


Though I do not believe there is enough historical evidence to support the “Sell in May and Go Away” approach to investing, the data for June does suggest that may not have been a bad approach over the last ten months of June.

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis there appears to have been only one clear winner over the last 25, 20, 15 and 10 months of June.  Energy stocks have been the best sector performer for the trailing 25, 20, and 15 years during the month, and the third best performing sector over the last 10 years.

The last ten Junes have been very challenging for the markets.  This includes a four year stretch between 2010 and 2013 where the S&P 500 went down every year.   The markets weakness over the last ten years during June should help explain why the “defensive” utility sector was the best performing sector during this period of time.

In my opinion the data does not show any clear cut sector to avoid in June.

Based on my research I will be weighting the AFL Select Sector Folio as follows for this June:

75% Energy Stocks

25% Utilities

 

June
Cons Disc
Health Care
Energy
Financials
Cons Staples
Technology
1990
10.52%
12.23%
9.42%
6.71%
8.71%
12.78%
1991
5.96%
4.40%
1.46%
5.22%
3.66%
3.13%
1992
0.57%
3.16%
5.67%
3.13%
0.89%
1.16%
1993
6.49%
5.07%
4.07%
-1.03%
3.15%
8.62%
1994
-2.27%
0.56%
1.92%
4.25%
-0.73%
-2.02%
1995
1.72%
1.16%
2.33%
5.13%
3.59%
3.65%
1996
3.82%
1.77%
1.62%
1.99%
3.69%
3.35%
1997
7.15%
10.34%
10.42%
5.46%
3.40%
12.43%
1998
0.27%
-3.52%
-6.36%
-2.40%
0.69%
-6.72%
1999
-2.75%
-0.12%
-2.59%
-3.49%
-1.63%
-0.98%
2000
-2.44%
1.49%
11.52%
5.50%
3.89%
-11.58%
2001
3.11%
4.22%
0.55%
4.03%
2.57%
-4.12%
2002
-0.45%
-3.67%
-2.72%
0.03%
0.50%
-5.80%
2003
5.87%
8.95%
12.68%
6.18%
6.44%
12.27%
2004
-0.16%
-0.70%
-1.09%
1.95%
-1.08%
5.62%
2005
5.71%
2.70%
3.98%
2.62%
3.21%
9.25%
2006
-3.39%
-3.25%
-3.87%
-3.82%
-0.31%
-8.17%
2007
3.29%
1.30%
7.80%
2.45%
1.53%
4.29%
2008
1.18%
2.52%
7.86%
-2.79%
1.10%
5.85%
2009
0.72%
5.67%
17.26%
10.96%
6.41%
4.45%
2010
-6.75%
-7.79%
-12.69%
-9.72%
-6.91%
-7.01%
2011
0.17%
2.14%
-4.30%
-2.85%
1.30%
-1.56%
2012
-5.70%
-3.64%
-10.97%
-7.53%
-4.20%
-9.14%
2013
-0.03%
-1.39%
-0.39%
-1.30%
-0.69%
-1.25%
2014
2.10%
5.15%
5.96%
2.39%
0.48%
4.50%
# Of Up Years
16
17
16
16
18
14
25 Year Mean
1.35%
1.93%
2.39%
1.38%
1.65%
1.38%
Standard Deviation
3.37
3.68
5.92
3.79
2.5
6.2
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
-0.21%
0.69%
0.76%
-1.35%
0.30%
0.14%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
0.32%
0.96%
2.08%
0.53%
1.13%
-0.24%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
0.72%
1.15%
1.80%
0.75%
1.36%
0.47%
June
Telecom
Nat Resources
Real Estate
Utilities
Industrials
S&P 500 TR
1990
8.43%
7.60%
0.88%
4.58%
6.82%
9.75%
1991
0.75%
3.07%
1.07%
0.20%
5.72%
4.31%
1992
-0.65%
3.91%
3.21%
1.95%
-0.22%
0.49%
1993
3.30%
3.56%
-0.69%
0.28%
4.39%
2.68%
1994
-0.22%
1.69%
1.28%
-2.50%
-1.88%
1.64%
1995
2.49%
1.65%
4.00%
3.74%
1.67%
4.00%
1996
2.85%
1.18%
2.55%
0.74%
1.39%
2.58%
1997
9.91%
8.02%
2.90%
4.81%
7.88%
6.09%
1998
-4.39%
-7.48%
-1.15%
-1.36%
-2.93%
-1.72%
1999
-0.53%
-3.90%
2.28%
2.51%
-1.42%
-2.36%
2000
-8.97%
7.99%
1.19%
-1.06%
-3.64%
-2.05%
2001
-4.96%
0.86%
2.02%
-1.84%
3.64%
0.67%
2002
-1.52%
0.27%
1.42%
-3.46%
-0.67%
-0.74%
2003
9.52%
10.56%
5.54%
0.30%
4.22%
5.27%
2004
0.73%
0.66%
6.34%
1.72%
2.08%
1.37%
2005
5.42%
2.48%
3.15%
0.73%
4.86%
3.18%
2006
-6.81%
-3.39%
-2.81%
-0.16%
-2.91%
-2.88%
2007
7.14%
5.97%
0.59%
3.41%
5.77%
3.49%
2008
5.24%
6.98%
0.08%
3.67%
2.30%
1.30%
2009
7.87%
15.98%
3.06%
6.13%
4.25%
5.59%
2010
-5.47%
-10.68%
-5.25%
-6.69%
-8.40%
-7.99%
2011
-0.17%
-4.16%
1.36%
0.30%
-2.56%
-1.13%
2012
-6.55%
-12.13%
-4.30%
-2.82%
-6.53%
-6.01%
2013
1.15%
-5.16%
-2.12%
0.19%
-1.55%
-1.01%
2014
0.74%
4.52%
1.12%
4.23%
1.19%
2.07%
# Of Up Years
14
18
19
17
14
16
25 Year Mean
1.06%
1.57%
1.16%
0.88%
1.04%
1.17%
Standard Deviation
4.66
5.27
2.21
2.38
3.51
3
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
0.94%
-0.43%
-0.38%
1.19%
-0.12%
-0.12%
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
0.22%
1.30%
0.79%
0.40%
0.36%
0.27%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
0.71%
0.91%
1.16%
0.87%
0.51%
0.65%

 

 

Rank
25 Year
20 Year
15 Year
10 Year
1
Energy
Energy
Energy
Utilities
2
Health Care
Cons Staples
Nat Resources
Telecom
3
Cons Staples
Real Estate
Cons Staples
Energy
4
Nat Resources
Health Care
Health Care
Health Care
5
Technology
Nat Resources
Real Estate
Cons Staples
6
Financials
Utilities
Financials
Technology
7
Cons Disc
Financials
Utilities
Industrials
8
S&P 500 TR
Cons Disc
Industrials
S&P 500 TR
9
Real Estate
Telecom
Cons Disc
Cons Disc
10
Telecom
S&P 500 TR
S&P 500 TR
Real Estate
11
Industrials
Industrials
Telecom
Nat Resources
12
Utilities
Technology
Technology
Financials

 

*** Red Denotes A Negative Mean Return For That Time Period ***

 

 

Thank you.

Jon R. Orcutt is the author of “Master the Markets with Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide to Investing Success; Founder and Author of the Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter, found at www.allocationforlife.com ; and President and Senior Portfolio Manager at the AFL Advisory Group, LLC