Monday, January 14, 2013

10 Yr. Trailing S&P 500 and Mutual Fund Returns


The following data represents the average mutual fund returns for various asset classes and sectors over the last ten years for the period ending 12-31-12.  I read recently in the WSJ that the average returns for mutual funds are not accurate because the return data does not include mutual funds that were closed due to poor performance.  While I know the very few funds that fit this profile are not included in the data provided by Morningstar, it also works both ways.  Two mutual funds that I have personally owned for many years do not show up this data.  Had each of these funds been included in the data then it would have enhanced the returns even further.  For example, the Yacktman Focused Fund (YAFFX) was classified as a large cap value fund by Morningstar for almost the entire time period examined.  In early 2012 the classification changed to large cap blend as Donald Yacktman added some traditional large cap growth names to his fund.  This funds ten year average annual return for the time period examined was 10.94% which drastically outperforms the large cap value category average annual return of 6.36%.  The same can be said of the Oakmark International Fund (OAKIX).  It too was classified as a foreign large cap value fund for most of the past ten years.  Yet it is currently classified as a foreign large cap blend fund and is also not included in my data.  OAKIX achieved an average annual return of 11.22% for the ten year period examined which also easily outperformed the foreign large cap value return of 8.04% for the same period of time. 

In the end we are still viewing the average performance of thousands of mutual funds for a given time period.  Yes, some dogs are not included in the data, and some of the best managers of all-time are also not included in the data.  Enjoy the data for what it is and the story it is telling.  That story is that the S&P 500 and the broader markets have shown tremendous resilience throughout the last ten years.
                                                                         10Yr *          5Yr *          3Yr *         2012
S&P 500 Index Total Return
7.10%
1.66%
10.86%
16.00%
Asset Classes
Domestic Large Cap Value
6.36%
0.21%
8.90%
14.53%
Domestic Mid Cap Value
8.85%
2.99%
10.90%
16.43%
Domestic Small Cap Value
9.40%
4.22%
11.77%
16.16%
Foreign Large Cap Value
8.04%
-3.69%
3.11%
16.49%
Foreign Small/Mid Value
10.18%
-1.68%
6.84%
20.55%
Domestic Large Cap Growth
6.40%
0.78%
9.02%
15.26%
Domestic Mid Cap Growth
8.40%
1.25%
10.87%
13.89%
Domestic Small Cap Growth
8.43%
1.78%
11.49%
13.24%
Foreign Large Cap Growth
8.39%
-2.67%
5.53%
17.88%
Diversified Emerg Markets
15.22%
-1.87%
4.07%
18.06%
Gold & Precious Metals Equities
14.45%
4.81%
0.89%
-8.66%
Real Estate
11.42%
5.05%
16.99%
17.64%
Broad-Basket Commodities
5.77%
-3.83%
1.47%
-0.32%

 

Sectors
Technology
8.90%
2.18%
7.91%
13.19%
Consumer Discretionary
7.54%
5.53%
16.39%
21.76%
Financials
3.58%
-3.20%
5.96%
24.68%
Telecom
9.16%
-0.59%
9.69%
15.57%
Industrials
9.37%
2.32%
12.47%
19.13%
Utilities
10.14%
0.15%
8.97%
7.26%
Natural Resources
11.27%
-3.65%
2.01%
4.41%
Real Estate
11.42%
5.05%
16.99%
17.64%
Health Care
9.21%
5.96%
12.47%
21.46%
Energy
13.22%
-3.39%
3.59%
1.42%
Consumer Staples
9.36%
5.99%
12.91%
14.65%
* denotes average annual ret

 

Jon R. Orcutt is the founder of Allocation For Life, Author of The Allocation For Life Investment Newsletter, Author of "Master The Markets With Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide To Investing Success" and manager/creator of the AFL Models available to Allocation For Life subscribers at Folio Investing.

 


 

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Week Ending 1/11/13 S&P 500, Asset Class & Sector Performance

The markets moved higher across the board this week.  There were only small pockets of weakness around the globe.  Health care stocks led the way with the biggest gains, which is not surprising if you follow my month historical sector analysis.  Also showing continued signs of strength were European related equities which continued their strong move higher.

S&P 500 Index 0.90%
Asset Classes Sectors
Domestic Large Cap Value 0.42% Technology 1.05%
Domestic Mid Cap Value 0.02% Consumer Discretionary 0.00%
Domestic Small Cap Value -0.16% Financials 0.74%
Foreign Large Cap Value 1.25% Telecom 0.14%
Foreign Small/Mid Value 1.45% Industrials 0.25%
Domestic Large Cap Growth 0.82% Utilities -0.47%
Domestic Mid Cap Growth 0.37% Natural Resources 0.02%
Domestic Small Cap Growth 0.43% Real Estate 0.40%
Foreign Large Cap Growth 0.62% Health Care 2.16%
Diversified Emerg Markets -0.23% Energy 0.42%
Gold & Precious Metals Equities 0.23% Consumer Staples 0.28%
Real Estate 0.40%
Broad-Basket Commodities 0.51%
Regions
Europe Stock 1.40%
China Region -0.56%
Japan Stock 0.10%
Latin America Stock -0.18%



Jon R. Orcutt is the founder of Allocation For Life, Author of The Allocation For Life Investment Newsletter, Author of "Master The Markets With Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide To Investing Success" and manager/creator of the AFL Models available to Allocation For Life subscribers at Folio Investing.

 

Tuesday, January 1, 2013

Dec '12: How The Sectors Stood Up


Nearly every sector posted gains this December.  The two sectors that did not may have surprised some investors.  Both the average consumer discretionary stock as well as the average consumer staples stock finished in negative territory for the month of December.  Being that the market was volatile some might have expected the defensive nature of consumer staple stocks to provide a safe haven.  However, my historical sector analysis over the last twenty-five years shows that it should have been a sector to avoid.  Prior to this December, consumer staples have finished as a bottom fourth performer versus the other sectors and the S&P 500 over the last twenty-five, twenty, fifteen and ten months of December.  This year was no different.

Here is how the sectors stood up versus their trailing historical performance:

Rank
25 Year
20 Year
15 Year
10 Year
Dec-12
1
Real Estate
Real Estate
Telecom
Real Estate
Industrials
2
Health Care
Health Care
Real Estate
Health Care
Financials
3
Telecom
Telecom
Health Care
Telecom
Real Estate
4
Technology
Utilities
Utilities
Utilities
Nat Resources
5
Cons Disc
Nat Resources
Energy
Nat Resources
Telecom
6
Industrials
Industrials
Nat Resources
Energy
Technology
7
Utilities
Energy
Cons Disc
Industrials
Energy
8
Nat Resources
Financials
Industrials
S&P 500 TR
Utilities
9
Financials
Cons Disc
Financials
Cons Disc
S&P 500 TR
10
Energy
Technology
Technology
Cons Staples
Health Care
11
S&P 500 TR
Cons Staples
S&P 500 TR
Financials
Cons Disc
12
Cons Staples
S&P 500 TR
Cons Staples
Technology
Cons Staples

 

Based on the historical analysis I conducted, I was able to manage the AFL Cyclical Sector Folio to a gain of 2.64% for the month of December.  This significantly outpaced the S&P 500 TR which finished December with a gain of .9%.  Returns for the AFL Cyclical Sector Folio are updated daily and can be viewed at http://www.allocationforlife.com/aflmodels.php

My historical analysis for the month of January has been posted and can also be viewed here:


 

Happy New Year!

Jon R. Orcutt is the founder of Allocation For Life, Author of The Allocation For Life Investment Newsletter, Author of "Master The Markets With Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide To Investing Success" and manager/creator of the AFL Models available to Allocation For Life subscribers at Folio Investing.

 

2012,Q4 & Dec S&P 500, Asset Class & Sector Performance


As of the close on 12-31-12 Dec Q4 2012
S&P 500 Index Total Return 0.91% -0.38% 16.00%
Asset Class Category Average Performance
Internmediate-Term Bond 0.07% 0.75% 6.87%
Large Cap Value 1.56% 0.96% 14.53%
Mid Cap Value 2.34% 3.28% 16.43%
Small Cap Value 3.52% 3.78% 16.16%
Foreign Large Cap Value 3.91% 6.65% 16.49%
Foreign Small/Mid Cap Value 4.43% 6.30% 20.55%
Large Cap Growth 1.57% -0.63% 15.26%
Mid Cap Growth 1.56% 1.15% 13.89%
Small Cap Growth 2.31% -0.09% 13.24%
Foreign Large Cap Growth 2.83% 5.32% 17.88%
Diversified Emerging Markets 4.98% 6.01% 18.06%
Gold & Precious Metals Equites -3.09% -13.16% -8.66%
Real Estate 3.46% 2.31% 17.64%
Broad Basket Commodities -1.97% -5.35% -0.32%
Sector Category Average Performance
Technology 1.55% -1.69% 13.19%
Consumer Discretionary -0.24% 1.12% 21.76%
Financials 3.90% 4.49% 24.68%
Telecommunications 1.70% 0.02% 15.57%
Industrials 3.94% 7.81% 19.13%
Utilities 1.02% -0.51% 7.26%
Natural Resources 2.56% -0.06% 4.41%
Real Estate 3.46% 2.31% 17.64%
Health Care 0.09% -1.38% 21.46%
Consumer Staples -1.27% 0.44% 14.65%
Energy 1.17% -1.00% 1.42%
Regions
Europe Stock 3.54% 6.87% 20.94%
China Region 5.29% 10.91% 17.08%
Japan Stock 5.72% 6.98% 10.42%
Latin America 7.80% 5.38% 9.88%

Jon R. Orcutt is the founder of Allocation For Life, Author of The Allocation For Life Investment Newsletter, Author of "Master The Markets With Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide To Investing Success" and manager/creator of the AFL Models available to Allocation For Life subscribers at Folio Investing.

 
www.allocationforlife.com