Sept Hisotical S&P and Sector Analysis

This month, as always, I am sharing the average sector and S&P 500 performance for the month of September over the last twenty-five years.  Though I am sharing this data with you, I can honestly say I am not relying on any of the data calculated going into this September.  Historical trends should be thrown out the window going into this September.  The markets are facing a possible military strike against Syria, as well as the possible beginning of the Fed tapering program.  If anyone claims that they know how the market will react to either of these possible events then I would suggest you ignore them.

After removing the high and low returns for statistical analysis for each of the time periods examined, some interesting data did emerge.  What was very noticeable was how heavily affected the S&P 500 is by the performance of industrials.  For example, for three of the four time periods examined the S&P 500 TR and the industrial sector were the two worst performers when compared to the other ten sectors in the study.  Even more interesting is the trailing twenty five year analysis.  Ten of the sectors were able to achieve a positive mean return, while the S&P 500 TR and the industrial sector ended with negative mean returns. 

Again, I am placing zero emphasis on this historical data.  Hopefully you will be able to find something useful.  My takeaway is that September is not necessarily a historically bad month, but what it has shown is that in times when the market has something to worry about, the selloffs have been dramatic.  Perhaps in a year where we have good gains on the table and a few issues to worry about it may be prudent to tread lightly this September.

Sept	Cons Disc	Health Care	Energy	Financials	Cons Staples	Technology
1988	6.95%	3.79%	-2.02%	3.39%	4.01%	3.33%
1989	0.55%	2.48%	-0.41%	1.51%	0.42%	1.61%
1990	-8.92%	-5.04%	-1.13%	-10.13%	-3.19%	-9.47%
1991	0.13%	1.63%	-3.65%	-0.47%	-1.76%	-2.04%
1992	2.23%	-2.49%	2.91%	2.57%	1.68%	2.63%
1993	4.26%	3.23%	-1.82%	2.76%	-0.32%	2.78%
1994	-0.96%	1.09%	1.15%	-3.90%	0.19%	2.12%
1995	1.52%	5.87%	-0.23%	3.36%	7.85%	3.14%
1996	4.84%	6.47%	4.66%	5.24%	3.39%	10.31%
1997	7.04%	9.20%	7.61%	8.37%	6.09%	5.10%
1998	1.23%	13.09%	19.45%	3.20%	3.27%	12.43%
1999	-0.20%	-5.60%	-3.90%	-3.55%	-5.79%	3.38%
2000	-1.14%	4.64%	0.66%	3.95%	0.76%	-9.59%
2001	-13.23%	-5.53%	-10.51%	-6.37%	-4.50%	-21.83%
2002	-6.96%	-4.29%	-7.46%	-10.81%	-7.79%	-14.84%
2003	-3.01%	0.45%	-1.97%	0.64%	0.67%	-2.93%
2004	3.36%	2.25%	10.22%	0.93%	-2.13%	4.93%
2005	-2.22%	0.59%	6.10%	0.61%	0.23%	2.15%
2006	5.15%	0.30%	-5.75%	3.45%	0.70%	3.06%
2007	0.68%	3.88%	8.97%	2.71%	4.90%	5.01%
2008	-9.73%	-6.70%	-20.95%	-5.10%	-3.31%	-14.92%
2009	5.37%	2.56%	9.65%	2.99%	3.83%	6.21%
2010	12.51%	9.86%	10.64%	7.99%	8.21%	13.03%
2011	-7.15%	-5.38%	-14.75%	-11.23%	-6.20%	-6.78%
2012	2.66%	4.52%	2.48%	3.70%	1.40%	1.08%
# Of Up Years	15	18	12	17	16	17
Mean	0.25%	1.50%	0.50%	0.38%	0.53%	0.38%
Standard Deviation	4.72	4.43	6.52	4.71	3.59	6.99
Trailing 10yr Mean	0.61%	1.15%	1.87%	1.24%	0.79%	1.59%
Trailing 15 yr Mean	-0.92%	0.63%	0.34%	-0.28%	-0.47%	-0.83%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.26%	1.90%	0.88%	0.66%	0.61%	0.70%
Sept	Telecom	Nat Resources	Real Estate	Utilities	Industrials	S&P 500 TR
1988	5.88%	-1.37%	2.00%	2.87%	4.51%	4.26%
1989	2.17%	-0.89%	-0.26%	0.84%	-2.28%	-0.41%
1990	-5.13%	-2.77%	-5.43%	-0.11%	-10.00%	-4.87%
1991	2.34%	-1.78%	2.00%	2.87%	-1.31%	-1.67%
1992	1.22%	0.85%	2.35%	0.52%	2.70%	1.18%
1993	1.37%	-2.78%	4.52%	-0.12%	-0.08%	-0.77%
1994	-0.74%	0.94%	-1.68%	-2.16%	-4.73%	-2.45%
1995	3.59%	-0.03%	2.16%	4.51%	0.21%	4.22%
1996	3.13%	2.87%	2.61%	0.91%	2.77%	5.63%
1997	7.64%	6.43%	9.52%	5.87%	4.46%	5.48%
1998	8.91%	16.28%	5.17%	7.33%	1.15%	6.41%
1999	3.24%	-1.20%	-3.71%	-0.26%	-4.99%	-2.74%
2000	-9.26%	-0.79%	3.48%	2.83%	-4.09%	-5.28%
2001	-10.07%	-10.47%	-4.14%	-7.15%	-15.04%	-8.08%
2002	-12.28%	-6.05%	-3.69%	-9.49%	-8.41%	-10.87%
2003	-0.92%	-1.16%	3.28%	2.24%	-3.25%	-1.06%
2004	3.69%	9.55%	0.22%	2.22%	4.11%	1.08%
2005	2.32%	5.58%	0.44%	3.42%	1.76%	0.81%
2006	3.66%	-5.92%	1.85%	-0.59%	2.81%	2.58%
2007	5.39%	9.52%	4.55%	4.64%	3.28%	3.74%
2008	-17.49%	-18.96%	-2.01%	-13.25%	-13.71%	-8.91%
2009	7.17%	6.05%	6.66%	3.14%	5.28%	3.73%
2010	10.76%	10.19%	4.46%	4.70%	12.44%	8.92%
2011	-7.72%	-17.27%	-10.43%	-3.61%	-10.89%	-7.03%
2012	3.78%	4.30%	-1.36%	2.15%	1.15%	2.58%
# Of Up Years	17	11	16	16	13	13
Mean	0.84%	0.17%	1.02%	0.88%	-1.28%	-0.07%
Standard Deviation	5.73	6.35	3.25	3.63	5.30	4.41
Trailing 10yr Mean	2.17%	1.33%	1.43%	1.70%	0.53%	0.80%
Trailing 15 yr Mean	-0.16%	0.18%	0.66%	0.33%	-1.98%	-0.94%
Trailing 20 Yr Mean	0.72%	0.54%	1.27%	0.74%	-1.29%	0.00%

 

	25 Year	20 Year	15 Year	10 Year
1	Health Care	Health Care	Real Estate	Telecom
2	Real Estate	Real Estate	Health Care	Energy
3	Utilities	Energy	Energy	Utilities
4	Telecom	Utilities	Utilities	Technology
5	Cons Staples	Telecom	Natural Resources	Real Estate
6	Energy	Technology	Telecom	Natural Resources
7	Technology	Financials	Financials	Financials
8	Financials	Cons Staples	Cons Staples	Health Care
9	Consum Discret	Natural Resources	Technology	S&P 500 TR
10	Natural Resources	Cons Disc	Cons Disc	Cons Staples
11	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	S&P 500 TR	Cons Disc
12	Industrials	Industrials	Industrials	Industrials

 

Jon R. Orcutt is the founder of Allocation For Life, Author of The Allocation For Life Investment Newsletter, Author of "Master The Markets With Mutual Funds: A Common Sense Guide To Investing Success" and manager/creator of the AFL Models available to Allocation For Life subscribers at Folio Investing.

 

www.allocationforlife.com