March Historical Sector Analysis
*** Pre-Released to
Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter Subscribers ***
March is a very interesting month for our domestic
markets. Over the last fifteen years
March has been the month when two major market declines came to an end. Market bottoms were reached in both March of
2003 and March of 2009.
After removing the high and low returns for statistical
analysis, there are a few obvious trends in the sectors that I have observed
over the last twenty-five years during the month of March. Overall, the markets have been consistently
strong in March, with the S&P 500 achieving the following mean returns for
each specific time period examined:
25 Yean Mean = 1.56%
20 Year Mean = 1.95%
15 Year Mean = 2.01%
10 Year Mean = 1.99%
While no one sector has been the leader for more than one of
the time periods examined, consistent strength can be seen in the Consumer
Discretionary sector (Sector leader the last twenty-five years and the second
best performing sector for the trailing 20, 15 and 10 year time periods), and
the Industrial Sector (A top three performing sector for every time period
examined.)
Perpetual weakness versus the other sectors and the S&P
500 can be seen in the Health Care sector (the worst performing sector for
three of the time periods examined and next to the last worst performing sector
in the other), and the Technology Sector (A bottom three performer for every
time period examined.)
|
March
|
Cons Disc
|
Health Care
|
Energy
|
Financials
|
Cons Staples
|
Technology
|
|
1990
|
4.36%
|
3.51%
|
4.14%
|
-0.36%
|
4.32%
|
4.59%
|
|
1991
|
5.70%
|
6.74%
|
12.51%
|
5.22%
|
4.89%
|
4.27%
|
|
1992
|
-1.29%
|
-5.25%
|
0.71%
|
-0.41%
|
-2.22%
|
-7.11%
|
|
1993
|
6.33%
|
1.97%
|
9.36%
|
4.62%
|
2.72%
|
2.48%
|
|
1994
|
-4.60%
|
-6.43%
|
-2.37%
|
-3.26%
|
-4.67%
|
-5.11%
|
|
1995
|
2.39%
|
3.78%
|
3.74%
|
0.51%
|
2.27%
|
4.60%
|
|
1996
|
3.33%
|
1.33%
|
2.71%
|
1.79%
|
-1.68%
|
-3.17%
|
|
1997
|
-2.52%
|
-7.01%
|
-8.37%
|
-5.89%
|
-2.61%
|
-6.69%
|
|
1998
|
5.94%
|
3.13%
|
4.54%
|
5.26%
|
3.67%
|
2.41%
|
|
1999
|
3.07%
|
0.78%
|
-4.66%
|
2.52%
|
-0.10%
|
10.63%
|
|
2000
|
9.86%
|
-8.58%
|
3.39%
|
13.59%
|
8.79%
|
-4.38%
|
|
2001
|
-5.67%
|
-11.07%
|
0.46%
|
-2.65%
|
-3.36%
|
-16.22%
|
|
2002
|
3.10%
|
2.18%
|
3.40%
|
5.81%
|
3.35%
|
9.43%
|
|
2003
|
2.54%
|
3.98%
|
2.71%
|
-0.71%
|
-0.08%
|
-0.53%
|
|
2004
|
0.07%
|
-0.58%
|
5.63%
|
-0.26%
|
0.63%
|
-2.23%
|
|
2005
|
0.02%
|
-1.89%
|
13.54%
|
-2.97%
|
-1.31%
|
-2.87%
|
|
2006
|
2.94%
|
-0.78%
|
-10.11%
|
1.39%
|
1.74%
|
2.45%
|
|
2007
|
0.95%
|
0.23%
|
-0.07%
|
-0.61%
|
2.47%
|
0.37%
|
|
2008
|
-3.79%
|
-3.72%
|
8.40%
|
-2.01%
|
2.22%
|
-0.61%
|
|
2009
|
11.85%
|
5.61%
|
-9.43%
|
12.59%
|
4.80%
|
11.45%
|
|
2010
|
8.61%
|
4.80%
|
2.47%
|
7.52%
|
5.25%
|
7.16%
|
|
2011
|
0.11%
|
3.15%
|
3.15%
|
-0.80%
|
0.91%
|
-0.76%
|
|
2012
|
4.68%
|
4.18%
|
-4.04%
|
4.46%
|
3.10%
|
4.44%
|
|
2013
|
4.19%
|
6.53%
|
2.99%
|
3.03%
|
4.42%
|
2.39%
|
|
2014
|
-1.50%
|
-4.96%
|
1.97%
|
1.94%
|
1.52%
|
-2.67%
|
|
# of up Years
|
19
|
15
|
18
|
14
|
17
|
13
|
|
Trailing 25 Yr Mean
|
2.37%
|
0.26%
|
1.88%
|
1.85%
|
1.61%
|
0.83%
|
|
Standard Deviation
|
3.65
|
4.28
|
5.05
|
3.75
|
2.51
|
4.73
|
|
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
|
2.50%
|
1.45%
|
0.68%
|
1.87%
|
2.65%
|
1.60%
|
|
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
|
2.44%
|
0.28%
|
1.62%
|
2.28%
|
2.23%
|
0.94%
|
|
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
|
2.44%
|
0.31%
|
1.06%
|
2.05%
|
1.70%
|
1.11%
|
|
March
|
Telecom
|
Nat Resources
|
Real Estate
|
Utilities
|
Industrials
|
S&P 500
|
|
1990
|
2.28%
|
0.49%
|
0.33%
|
0.11%
|
5.08%
|
2.65%
|
|
1991
|
3.64%
|
-1.61%
|
4.38%
|
1.50%
|
1.59%
|
2.42%
|
|
1992
|
-2.95%
|
-3.28%
|
-0.77%
|
-0.86%
|
-3.30%
|
-1.94%
|
|
1993
|
3.51%
|
5.65%
|
6.85%
|
1.72%
|
6.17%
|
2.11%
|
|
1994
|
-4.96%
|
-5.46%
|
-3.09%
|
-3.34%
|
-4.56%
|
-4.36%
|
|
1995
|
2.07%
|
5.64%
|
0.42%
|
-0.21%
|
5.10%
|
2.95%
|
|
1996
|
0.28%
|
5.44%
|
0.09%
|
-0.56%
|
2.64%
|
0.96%
|
|
1997
|
-5.52%
|
-2.52%
|
0.46%
|
-3.09%
|
-1.35%
|
-4.11%
|
|
1998
|
7.59%
|
3.56%
|
2.35%
|
7.07%
|
4.86%
|
5.12%
|
|
1999
|
7.83%
|
16.08%
|
-1.14%
|
0.02%
|
1.38%
|
4.00%
|
|
2000
|
-0.25%
|
11.92%
|
4.29%
|
5.07%
|
12.73%
|
9.78%
|
|
2001
|
-14.04%
|
-2.63%
|
-0.23%
|
-2.22%
|
-4.99%
|
-6.34%
|
|
2002
|
2.70%
|
9.21%
|
5.59%
|
6.45%
|
3.14%
|
3.76%
|
|
2003
|
-0.19%
|
-3.38%
|
2.18%
|
2.15%
|
0.77%
|
0.97%
|
|
2004
|
-2.11%
|
1.34%
|
5.76%
|
0.81%
|
-0.17%
|
-1.51%
|
|
2005
|
-3.56%
|
-1.20%
|
-1.62%
|
-0.11%
|
-1.31%
|
-1.77%
|
|
2006
|
3.82%
|
5.21%
|
4.86%
|
-1.48%
|
4.43%
|
1.24%
|
|
2007
|
1.44%
|
4.79%
|
-1.57%
|
4.29%
|
-0.10%
|
1.12%
|
|
2008
|
-3.57%
|
-2.49%
|
3.84%
|
-0.62%
|
0.51%
|
-0.43%
|
|
2009
|
8.43%
|
6.69%
|
4.50%
|
2.71%
|
8.04%
|
8.76%
|
|
2010
|
7.05%
|
5.30%
|
9.41%
|
3.26%
|
9.04%
|
6.03%
|
|
2011
|
0.73%
|
1.48%
|
-1.27%
|
0.71%
|
1.83%
|
0.04%
|
|
2012
|
2.03%
|
-4.52%
|
4.70%
|
1.03%
|
1.15%
|
3.29%
|
|
2013
|
3.12%
|
0.99%
|
2.75%
|
5.03%
|
3.55%
|
3.75%
|
|
2014
|
0.42%
|
0.60%
|
0.68%
|
2.64%
|
0.04%
|
0.84%
|
|
# of up Years
|
16
|
16
|
18
|
16
|
18
|
18
|
|
Trailing 25 Yr Mean
|
1.10%
|
2.03%
|
2.06%
|
1.23%
|
2.11%
|
1.56%
|
|
Standard Deviation
|
3.66
|
4.34
|
2.63
|
2.39
|
3.31
|
3.06
|
|
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
|
1.88%
|
1.84%
|
2.31%
|
1.74%
|
2.43%
|
1.99%
|
|
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
|
0.89%
|
1.99%
|
2.78%
|
1.96%
|
2.38%
|
2.01%
|
|
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
|
1.33%
|
2.78%
|
2.13%
|
1.61%
|
2.42%
|
1.95%
|
March
Historical Sector Rankings
|
Rank
|
25 Year
|
20 Year
|
15 Year
|
10 Year
|
|
1
|
Cons Disc
|
Nat Resources
|
Real Estate
|
Cons Staples
|
|
2
|
Industrials
|
Cons Disc
|
Cons Disc
|
Cons Disc
|
|
3
|
Real Estate
|
Industrials
|
Industrials
|
Industrials
|
|
4
|
Nat Resources
|
Real Estate
|
Financials
|
Real Estate
|
|
5
|
Energy
|
Financials
|
Cons Staples
|
S&P 500 TR
|
|
6
|
Financials
|
S&P 500 TR
|
S&P 500 TR
|
Telecom
|
|
7
|
Cons Staples
|
Cons Staples
|
Nat Resources
|
Financials
|
|
8
|
S&P 500 TR
|
Utilities
|
Utilities
|
Nat Resources
|
|
9
|
Utilities
|
Telecom
|
Energy
|
Utilities
|
|
10
|
Telecom
|
Technology
|
Technology
|
Technology
|
|
11
|
Technology
|
Energy
|
Telecom
|
Health Care
|
|
12
|
Health Care
|
Health Care
|
Health Care
|
Energy
|
Based on my research I will be weighting the Select Sector
Folio as follows for this coming March:
25% Consumer Discretionary
25% Nat Resources
25% Real Estate
25% Consumer Staples
The following represent the returns of the Select Sector
Folio which is weighted each month based on my research:
|
YTD
|
1MOS
|
3MOS
|
1YR
|
3YR
|
INCEPTION
|
|
5.12%
|
4.66%
|
5.62%
|
26.10%
|
32.68%
|
As of the close on 2/27/2015 / Inception Date 1/2/2014
Data researched and provided by Jon R. Orcutt. Mr. Orcutt is President and Senior Portfolio
Manager at the AFL Advisory Group, and author of the Allocation for Life
Investment Newsletter found at www.allocationforlife.com
