After removing the high and low returns for statistical
analysis, the data clearly shows that energy stocks have been the undisputed
industry leader in the month of April for the last twenty-five years. The energy sectors performance has been so
strong, that is also the leading sector in April for the trailing twenty,
fifteen and ten year time periods.
However, over the last fifteen years the data showed a virtual tie
between the energy and real estate sectors for the top position.
As many of you know, April has never been considered a month
of worry for our domestic stock markets.
Again, after removing the outliers for each time period examined, the
data shows that the S&P 500 TR has enjoyed mean returns of 1.81%, 2.33%,
2.06% and 2.15% for the trailing twenty-five, twenty, fifteen and ten months of
April.
No particular sector has shown a tremendous amount of
weakness during the month of April.
However, when compared to the other sectors and the S&P 500,
technology and health care stocks have been the traditional laggards in April.
For the month of April I will be weighting my AFL Select
Sector Folio as follows:
87.5% Energy
12.5% Real Estate
|
April
|
Cons Discr
|
Health Care
|
Energy
|
Financials
|
Cons Staples
|
Technology
|
|
1990
|
-1.79%
|
0.09%
|
-5.95%
|
-3.80%
|
-0.39%
|
-2.08%
|
|
1991
|
0.07%
|
-2.01%
|
0.45%
|
0.48%
|
-1.52%
|
-1.68%
|
|
1992
|
-1.42%
|
-5.36%
|
5.08%
|
2.47%
|
-1.15%
|
-2.45%
|
|
1993
|
-2.75%
|
1.28%
|
4.63%
|
-3.84%
|
-3.88%
|
-2.67%
|
|
1994
|
0.86%
|
0.46%
|
5.25%
|
2.71%
|
-1.12%
|
-0.68%
|
|
1995
|
-0.51%
|
-0.97%
|
6.28%
|
3.08%
|
2.18%
|
5.25%
|
|
1996
|
4.41%
|
2.06%
|
7.90%
|
0.38%
|
-1.83%
|
10.41%
|
|
1997
|
1.46%
|
-0.16%
|
-1.18%
|
4.82%
|
3.94%
|
3.80%
|
|
1998
|
-0.33%
|
0.81%
|
2.73%
|
1.62%
|
-1.85%
|
4.07%
|
|
1999
|
1.29%
|
-4.00%
|
16.44%
|
6.80%
|
1.21%
|
2.70%
|
|
2000
|
-3.99%
|
-1.37%
|
0.32%
|
-2.70%
|
2.72%
|
-11.48%
|
|
2001
|
6.26%
|
7.73%
|
12.08%
|
3.38%
|
1.01%
|
19.74%
|
|
2002
|
-0.17%
|
-6.73%
|
0.60%
|
0.10%
|
2.46%
|
-12.17%
|
|
2003
|
8.17%
|
5.66%
|
1.50%
|
11.30%
|
5.08%
|
10.05%
|
|
2004
|
-2.51%
|
1.85%
|
-0.43%
|
-5.17%
|
1.44%
|
-7.29%
|
|
2005
|
-5.27%
|
2.80%
|
-6.43%
|
-1.46%
|
-3.06%
|
-4.30%
|
|
2006
|
1.16%
|
-3.43%
|
6.53%
|
2.83%
|
0.70%
|
0.32%
|
|
2007
|
1.63%
|
6.03%
|
6.11%
|
2.99%
|
3.58%
|
3.47%
|
|
2008
|
3.30%
|
2.57%
|
11.31%
|
4.82%
|
-0.18%
|
7.48%
|
|
2009
|
16.14%
|
0.51%
|
14.00%
|
16.49%
|
7.86%
|
13.14%
|
|
2010
|
5.23%
|
-1.65%
|
2.72%
|
2.27%
|
-0.44%
|
2.43%
|
|
2011
|
3.99%
|
6.86%
|
0.32%
|
1.72%
|
5.80%
|
3.12%
|
|
2012
|
0.95%
|
-0.06%
|
-0.90%
|
-1.86%
|
0.20%
|
-2.85%
|
|
2013
|
3.39%
|
3.77%
|
-0.47%
|
2.04%
|
3.31%
|
-0.34%
|
|
2014
|
-1.49%
|
-3.36%
|
4.36%
|
-2.12%
|
1.59%
|
-3.66%
|
|
# Of Up Years
|
15
|
14
|
19
|
18
|
15
|
13
|
|
Trailing 25 Yr Mean
|
1.18%
|
0.54%
|
3.62%
|
1.65%
|
1.03%
|
1.16%
|
|
Standard Deviation
|
2.99
|
3.13
|
4.66
|
3.43
|
2.3
|
5.7
|
|
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
|
2.27%
|
1.33%
|
3.75%
|
1.67%
|
1.82%
|
1.25%
|
|
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
|
1.99%
|
1.55%
|
3.39%
|
1.79%
|
2.10%
|
0.78%
|
|
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
|
1.79%
|
1.00%
|
4.10%
|
2.22%
|
1.72%
|
2.02%
|
|
April
|
Telecom
|
Nat Resources
|
Real Estate
|
Utilities
|
Industrials
|
S&P 500 TR
|
|
1990
|
-4.20%
|
-6.08%
|
-1.19%
|
-4.19%
|
-3.09%
|
-2.49%
|
|
1991
|
1.31%
|
0.98%
|
1.17%
|
0.23%
|
-1.34%
|
0.24%
|
|
1992
|
2.79%
|
4.17%
|
-0.99%
|
2.15%
|
-1.10%
|
2.94%
|
|
1993
|
-1.54%
|
2.94%
|
-3.35%
|
-0.48%
|
1.46%
|
-2.42%
|
|
1994
|
0.34%
|
2.91%
|
0.67%
|
1.67%
|
0.22%
|
1.28%
|
|
1995
|
1.74%
|
3.73%
|
-0.91%
|
2.30%
|
4.93%
|
2.94%
|
|
1996
|
4.23%
|
5.48%
|
-0.03%
|
0.27%
|
1.41%
|
1.47%
|
|
1997
|
2.44%
|
-0.50%
|
-3.48%
|
0.86%
|
2.84%
|
5.97%
|
|
1998
|
0.55%
|
2.45%
|
-2.99%
|
-1.71%
|
0.70%
|
1.01%
|
|
1999
|
5.83%
|
16.60%
|
10.42%
|
6.55%
|
12.97%
|
3.87%
|
|
2000
|
-10.59%
|
-0.76%
|
5.47%
|
-3.79%
|
2.39%
|
-3.01%
|
|
2001
|
13.96%
|
10.52%
|
2.32%
|
6.01%
|
8.55%
|
7.77%
|
|
2002
|
-10.82%
|
0.63%
|
1.33%
|
-3.74%
|
-4.04%
|
-6.06%
|
|
2003
|
9.69%
|
1.16%
|
4.02%
|
7.04%
|
10.47%
|
8.24%
|
|
2004
|
-5.15%
|
-2.34%
|
-13.70%
|
-2.25%
|
-0.41%
|
-1.57%
|
|
2005
|
-2.74%
|
-6.46%
|
4.52%
|
0.73%
|
-6.09%
|
-1.90%
|
|
2006
|
0.88%
|
6.44%
|
-2.94%
|
2.15%
|
1.59%
|
1.34%
|
|
2007
|
3.74%
|
4.66%
|
0.20%
|
4.00%
|
4.13%
|
4.43%
|
|
2008
|
8.64%
|
8.94%
|
5.60%
|
5.89%
|
5.15%
|
4.87%
|
|
2009
|
11.96%
|
9.40%
|
29.62%
|
3.62%
|
18.46%
|
9.57%
|
|
2010
|
1.81%
|
1.43%
|
6.60%
|
1.98%
|
3.73%
|
1.58%
|
|
2011
|
3.81%
|
1.74%
|
5.25%
|
4.04%
|
3.35%
|
2.96%
|
|
2012
|
-1.57%
|
-1.22%
|
2.77%
|
1.67%
|
-0.93%
|
-0.63%
|
|
2013
|
4.58%
|
-2.48%
|
5.93%
|
4.52%
|
-0.42%
|
1.93%
|
|
2014
|
-0.77%
|
3.12%
|
3.05%
|
2.75%
|
0.31%
|
0.74%
|
|
# Of Up Years
|
17
|
18
|
16
|
19
|
17
|
18
|
|
Trailing 25 Yr Mean
|
1.64%
|
2.49%
|
1.89%
|
1.71%
|
2.30%
|
1.81%
|
|
Standard Deviation
|
4.86
|
3.91
|
3.62
|
2.81
|
4.03
|
3.05
|
|
Trailing 10 Yr Mean
|
2.64%
|
2.83%
|
4.24%
|
3.09%
|
2.11%
|
2.15%
|
|
Trailing 15 Yr Mean
|
1.87%
|
2.36%
|
3.39%
|
2.41%
|
2.61%
|
2.06%
|
|
Trailing 20 Yr Mean
|
2.17%
|
2.91%
|
2.62%
|
2.20%
|
3.15%
|
2.33%
|
|
Rank
|
25 Year
|
20 Year
|
15 Year
|
10 Year
|
|
1
|
Energy
|
Energy
|
Energy/Real Estate
|
Real Estate
|
|
2
|
Nat Resources
|
Industrials
|
Energy
|
|
|
3
|
Industrials
|
Nat Resources
|
Industrials
|
Utilities
|
|
4
|
Real Estate
|
Real Estate
|
Utilities
|
Nat Resources
|
|
5
|
S&P 500 TR
|
S&P 500 TR
|
Nat Resources
|
Telecom
|
|
6
|
Utilities
|
Financials
|
Cons Staples
|
Cons Disc
|
|
7
|
Financials
|
Utilities
|
S&P 500 TR
|
S&P 500 TR
|
|
8
|
Telecom
|
Telecom
|
Cons Disc
|
Industrials
|
|
9
|
Cons Disc
|
Technology
|
Telecom
|
Cons Staples
|
|
10
|
Technology
|
Cons Disc
|
Financials
|
Financials
|
|
11
|
Cons Staples
|
Cons Staples
|
Health Care
|
Health Care
|
|
12
|
Health Care
|
Health Care
|
Technology
|
Technology
|
Jon R. Orcutt is the author of “Master the Markets…”; Founder and
author of the Allocation for Life Investment Newsletter found at www.allocationforlife.com; and President
of the AFL Advisory Group, LLC
